A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
